The COAG meeting today is being framed as "rebel states" versus the federal government. The opening paragraph of SMH's article is:

ALMOST two-thirds of voters want the states to sign up to Kevin Rudd's health plan today but the government was deeply pessimistic about the scheme last night with Victoria entrenched against surrendering 30 per cent of its GST revenue.

The Australian's take is:

KEVIN Rudd is staring down the states over his plan to claw back 30 per cent of the GST for health as last-ditch negotiations centre on a federal-state funding pool in a bid to avoid the collapse of today's summit with the premiers.

Anyone would think that this is a fight to the death. It's just how these things go. Bluff and double bluff.

But what do you think is going to happen? Will Rudd win or will we have a referendum?